The Cleveland Browns are 7-3 for the first time in a long time. The Browns performance the past three weeks has been anything but impressive. The offense has only scored 22, 10, and 6 points in each of the last three games.

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But, Cleveland faces a Jacksonville defense that is one of the NFL’s worst. Plus, what the Browns have done this season against bad defenses is impressive. That gives a clue as to what bettors should be looking for in this Browns-Jags matchup.

Game: Cleveland Browns (7-3, 4-6 ATS) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-9, 4-6 ATS)

When: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, November 29, 2020

Where: TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, Florida

Current Line: CLE -6 Total: 49.5

TV Coverage: CBS

Offense is Clicking

Over the course of the first seven weeks of the 2020 season, the Browns put up some points. In fact, the lowest Total (44) in those seven games was in Week 1 when they lost to Baltimore. 

Cleveland’s offense was especially good against bad NFL defenses. There were 35 points against Cincinnati, 34 against Washington, and then 49 against Dallas. The Browns blew up Cincinnati again for 37 and even put up 32 against one of the league’s better defenses in Indianapolis.

Then came the past three weeks. Part of the problem had to do with the conditions in Cleveland. All three games were at home at FirstEnergy Stadium and each week the Browns had to deal with cold, wet, windy, and rainy conditions.

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Sunny Skies Ahead

Now, Cleveland gets to travel to Jacksonville where the forecast calls for 75-degree temperatures and sunny skies. That weather plus the disaster that is the Jaguars defense should lift the Browns offense back to a point-producing machine. 

The Jags rank 29th against the pass and 31st in total defense. They rank 29th in scoring defense allowing 29.8 points per game. To make matters worse for Jacksonville, defensive end Josh Allen is probably done for the season. He suffered a knee injury in the Jags recent loss to Pittsburgh.

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Hurting on Defense

Allen led the Jags defense with 2.5 sacks and 11 quarterback hits. The secondary will also be down two with CB D.J. Hayden and S Daniel Thomas listed as out for Sunday’s game.

What all that means is that Browns QB Baker Mayfield should have a field day. Cleveland’s running game with Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt is the NFL’s third-best rushing unit. The Browns average nearly 157 yards per game on the ground. That will help open up Mayfield and the passing game.

On the other side, the Jags will start QB Mike Glennon in place of injured starter Gardner Minshew. Glennon hasn’t started an NFL game since 2017. Despite last week’s 27-3 loss to Pittsburgh, the Jags have shown the ability to score. They had registered 20 points-plus in each of the previous three games.

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The Pick Is In

With the Browns beating up on inferior competition all season long and getting to play in good weather, this game appears headed to the Over. Plus, you can’t trust either team against the spread. 

The Browns are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games. Jacksonville is 2-6 ATS in their last eight games. Play the Over.

Browns @ Jaguars Free Pick: OVER 49.5

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