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NFL Player Props for Value

Searching NFL player props for value is a top football betting strategy.

The Best NFL Player Props for Value

Three years ago, in 2019, one of the most significant and well-known sportsbooks claimed that three markets—moneyline, point spread, and totals—accounted for 80% of all NFL wagers. The player props market accounted for the remaining 20% of football bets.

By the year 2022, those figures have changed. With the emergence of a new generation of betters, the statistics will continue to shift. Younger gamblers who have grown up playing fantasy football find it exciting and profitable to wager on individual individuals rather than teams.

NFL player props will continue to be popular. The topic of how to win more NFL player prop bets comes as more gamblers place more of them.

Editor’s Choice > The Philosophy of Sharp Bettors

Recognize the Market

NFL player prop bets are usually available on Tuesday mornings during a game week. As a week goes on, sportsbooks will add more props. Therefore, weekday market monitoring is advised for bettors.

The market for these player props are quite new. As sportsbooks adapt, this implies that there are certain inefficiencies. Sportsbooks are conscious of the fact that they are still ironing out the bugs. By lowering the maximum wagers permitted, they safeguard themselves.

Additionally, sportsbooks charge more juice for a player prop than for a standard wager. A typical player prop wager often has juice of -120 compared to the conventional point spread bet's -110.


Different NFL Player Props for Value

NFL player props are still being added by sportsbooks. Quarterback passing yards and passing touchdowns are among some of the most well-liked categories. The public likes betting on Josh Allen, Tom Brady, and Patrick Mahomes, according to sportsbooks. When placing wagers on well-known athletes, the books typically have the advantage.

Sportsbooks are having trouble in the Anytime Touchdown Scorer business. In this category, there will often be 20 players per squad in addition to a team’s defense. Sportsbooks give odds on backup running backs and wide receivers, digging deep into the roster. Bettors can find some quality players at great plus-money odds and capitalize big time.

Bettor's can discover excellent odds on the Anytime Touchdown Scorer, which is fantastic. As an illustration, consider last year's Super Bowl. Cooper Kupp's touchdown was the more popular gamble at a pretty sizable sportsbook than the game's point spread. Kupp, of course, had two goals and was the MVP of the contest. A lot of prop bettors were pleased by that.

What makes a successful NFL player props bettor?

Must Read: Betting College Football Totals

View the Matchups

Matchups are one of the first things to look at. A top-5 receiver going up against a bottom-5 defensive back is an extreme example. Compared to matches between players who are closer to the median, these encounters are more valuable.

Online, a wealth of statistics and indicators are accessible. Consider looking at metrics such as a wide receiver's use rate, targets per game, catches per game, and yards per catch if you find a wide receiver's total yards prop that you like.

Always Look at Player Usage Rate

NFL player props bettors should get used to something called player usage rate. It just refers to how extensively a player is utilized. In the case of a running back, it is just his total number of carries.

This could be a crucial figure for predicting a player's performance in a specific game. It will play a big part when it comes to NFL betting in the future.

A basic understanding of football coaching strategy is also helpful. Consider a game that is played in windy weather. Coaches get conservative with their play calling. They tend to run the ball more frequently. This has an impact on a running back's usage rate and, ultimately, his total rushing yards in a game.

Spreads & Totals & NFL Player Props

In order to make player prop bets, gamblers can use point spreads and totals as tools. Consider a situation where you like a running back’s rushing yards total, but his team is a 10-point underdog.

Using the point spread as a guide here, you would be likely to forgo this bet. Here’s why.

The running back’s team is giving 10 points for a reason. They are expected to be trailing most of the game. Teams that are behind in the NFL do not turn around and hand the ball off. They tend to throw more often.

Passing more often will definitely affect a running back’s usage rate. With fewer carries, the running back isn’t as likely to run for more yards. That’s why the smart bettor would forgo this wager.

The same is true of game totals. In a game with a total of 40 points, it might not make much sense to wager the Over on a quarterback's passing touchdowns. This is how you may make player prop bets using the lines given on an NFL game.

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