Overlooked Factors in Handicapping March Madness

Bettors should know these overlooked factors in handicapping March Madness.

Key Points

– Handicapping March Madness is much easier when bettors unlock these overlooked factors.

– CBB handicappers often overlook factors that directly impact March Madness outcomes.

Overlooked Factors in Handicapping March Madness

In many ways, betting on college basketball’s NCAA tournament is a sports bettor’s dream. It's a more straightforward form of handicapping than many games because you know teams will be playing at their highest level.

In handicapping college basketball, many variables are taken into consideration. These variables include things like strength of conference, strength of schedule, player skill, and much more. These factors are important in winning college basketball bets.

There are a number of factors that do not receive the average bettor’s full attention when handicapping March Madness. Here are five elements that college basketball handicappers frequently forget to consider when predicting tournament games.

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Consistency

There are numerous strong college teams out there, teams that can compete at a high level and defeat any opponent on any given night.

However, that doesn’t always matter. More than “being good” is required to win the National Championship. Teams must play at the very top of their game for six straight contests. Teams don’t get a second chance to prove themselves. When they lose, their season ends.

Many teams have moments of brilliance during a single game, but you can never predict how much effort they will put forth the following game. Such teams have a difficult time winning the national championship.

When handicapping March Madness, you have to look for teams that are consistent. Win or lose, they shoot well, play strong defense, rebound well, and they don’t commit a ridiculous amount of turnovers.

Bettors should also have an online sportsbook they can consistently trust.

Team Depth Is Key in Handicapping March Madness

College basketball teams must play a demanding schedule against challenging opponents. Teams that want to make the NCAA tournament like to play more difficult schedules. Doing so prepares them for the rigors of March Madness.

One of the issues with playing tough schedules is the health of a team. Injuries are unavoidable and the long season can be a grind. When tournament season comes, teams get tired.

If a team has just three or four solid players, they aren’t going to advance very far in the NCAA tournament. Teams that can go eight and nine players deep are the ones that typically compete for national titles.

Teams need minutes from players off the bench. Teams that lack a bench but can hold their own against an opponent’s starters will be hesitant to use the bench. That will limit them come tournament time.

When handicapping March Madness, it’s the teams with stronger bench play that advance farther. It’s the same in the NBA, which is in full swing right now. Learn more about how to buy NBA picks - a winning strategy.

Free Throw Shooting

The number of tournament games that are ultimately decided at the foul line is astounding. Therefore, free throws are a key component of any basketball betting strategies for winners.

There are a few different things to look at here when handicapping March Madness. There is free throw shooting percentage, but bettors should also be aware of how many free throws a team typically shoots in a game.

Teams that get to the foul line more often, tend to win more games. On the other end, teams that commit fewer fouls don’t give up as many free throws. Those teams are more likely to win games.

In every NCAA tournament, there are games decided at the free throw line. Teams that aren’t good at shooting free throws usually don’t fare too well. Bettors should keep this in mind as they make their picks.

Handicapping March Madness - Shooting

Basketball is a pretty simple game. The team with the most points at the end of the game wins. One of the keys in determining which team might score more points is how well they shoot the basketball.

Bettors could simply look at shooting percentage and that might give them an idea of how well a team shoots. However, keep in mind that today’s game features a lot more three-point attempts.

The better statistic to use to compare shooting numbers is effective field goal percentage. Effective field goal percentage, or eFG%, is calculated as follows:

[Field Goals x 0.5(Made 3-Pointers)] / Field Goal Attempts

A three-point field goal is worth more; therefore, we must account for that in the shooting percentage. You should have a strong online betting portal where you can find these stats, scores, odds, and more.

In a given game, both teams may have roughly the same number of shooting opportunities. It is highly likely that the team with the higher eFG% is the team that wins.

Pace & Tempo

In the NCAA tournament, it's not unusual for two college basketball teams to play in wildly dissimilar ways. If this is the case, it will be extremely hard for both teams to play their preferred style against one another.

When handicapping March Madness, you must understand each team’s style of play. That includes a look at their tempo and pace numbers. These numbers are readily available online and can be invaluable when picking games during the NCAA tournament.

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