NFL Free
Pick | 49ers @ Patriots
The 2020
season isn’t going all that well for either San Francisco or New England. Who
would have thought that two preseason Super Bowl contenders would be 3-3 and
2-3?
The Niners
have suffered so many injuries they may have to start suiting up coaches and
trainers. The Patriots are a run-first offense that is still trying to find
itself in the post-Tom Brady era. Now where will I go for this week’s free NFL pick?
LOW
ROLLOVERS AND HIGH REWARDS AT AMERICA’S BOOKIE
Like the
Patriots and 49ers, bettors are just trying to find a win.
Game: San
Francisco 49ers (3-3, 3-3 ATS) at New England Patriots (2-3, 2-3 ATS)
When:
4:25 PM ET, Sunday, October 25, 2020
Where:
Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts
Current
Line: NE -2 Total:
43.5
TV Coverage:
CBS
Hit Hard
by Injuries
After
winning the NFC title last season, the 49ers were an early favorite to repeat
as conference champions and win Super Bowl LV. They were upset by the Cardinals
in Week 1 and then the injury bug hit...and hard.
What was
one of the NFL’s best defenses lost DE Nick Bosa, DT Solomon Thomas, CB Richard
Sherman, DE Dee Ford, and the list goes on. When the 49ers signed DE Ziggy
Ansah to replace their casualties on the defensive line, he promptly tore a
biceps and was lost for the season.
Heading
into Sunday’s game with New England, San Francisco will now be without starting
center Ben Garland for the rest of the season. RB Raheem Mostert, who has
missed time already, has a high ankle sprain and Pro Bowl OT is listed as
questionable for Sunday.
Will it
Get Better?
Can it get
any worse for San Francisco?
Well, the
offense isn’t very good. The 49ers are 19th in points per game (24.7), 21st in
yards per play (5.6), and 26th in explosive play rate (26.5%). In layman’s
terms, the 49ers don’t create a lot of big plays, they don’t move the chains,
don’t sustain drives, and don’t score enough points to win games.
The
Patriots aren’t all that much better, but they are very good at one thing -
running the football. The offense is different than in year’s past under Brady.
With Cam Newton running the show, the offense is geared more toward the run.
The result is that New England is second in the NFL in rushing yards per game
(167.2).
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New England
is also sixth in explosive run rate, which tracks the number of run plays over
20 yards. San Francisco’s defense is 26th in explosive run rate meaning they
give up a lot of 20-plus-yard runs. Online
sportsbooks currently have the Patriots a 2-point home
favorite with the total set at 44.
The
Patriots have lost two games at home in three of the past four seasons. In none
of those seasons have the losses been in consecutive weeks.
This should
be a game where New England bounces back from its loss to Denver last week. It
will be a game where the Patriots once again rely on the run. San Francisco
will struggle to score points and the Total will be in play. The Under has
cashed in five of the last seven Patriots-49ers tilts.
NFL Free
Pick: 49ers-Patriots UNDER 44
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another free pick? Here’s a MNF
Betting preview.