Saturday NBA action features a matchup of division leaders as Milwaukee hosts Eastern Conference leader Philadelphia. Betting on this Sixers-Bucks matchup is going to depend a lot on who is in the lineup and who is out.

Recently, Milwaukee has played without leading scorer and two-time reigning league MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Sixers have Tobias Harris and Ben Simmons listed on the most recent injury report as day-to-day.

Who plays and who doesn’t will have an impact on how to bet this matchup.

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Game: Philadelphia 76ers (39-18, 30-24-3 ATS) at Milwaukee Bucks (35-22, 25-32 ATS)

When: 3:30 PM, Saturday, April 24, 2021

Where: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, Wisconsin

Current Line: OFF     Total: OFF

TV Coverage: ESPN

For Milwaukee, Giannis has been back in the lineup this week. On Monday, he scored 33 points and grabbed eight rebounds in a 128-127 loss to Phoenix in overtime. The Bucks should be at full strength on Saturday.

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It should be noted that the two teams will play each other on Thursday in the first of two games in three days. Philly and the Bucks have met once this season. Milwaukee won 109-105 as a six-point favorite. The total was 235 and the result went Under.

Philadelphia is one of the best defensive teams in the league. The Sixers rank fourth in defensive field goal percentage, eighth in points allowed per game, and they are second overall in defensive efficiency rating. 

In the first meeting with the Bucks, the 76ers were able to hold Milwaukee to 109 points. That’s roughly 10 points below their season average. 

With Harris and Simmons questionable for a Wednesday game with Phoenix, it may be a little too early to speculate but Simmons should be back. He was suffering from an illness. Harris had a knee issue and his injury might be more severe.

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Regardless, Philly’s defense will still work to suffocate Milwaukee and take them out of their game as they did in the first matchup this season. Slowing the Bucks down is tough as they are fourth in pace in the league. As good as the Sixers are on defense, they play at a fast pace as well. Philadelphia ranks eighth in possessions per game.

Need another free pick? We got you covered! Go check out our Hurricanes at Panthers betting preview.

Now, remember this is the second game of two to be played by the Bucks and Sixers. Typically, teams lack some offensive firepower in the second of two games. Call it familiarity and defensive tweaks or chalk it up to something else, but two teams playing in back-to-back games will normally see the second night’s total be less than the first night.

The play on Saturday’s game is the Under. The total in the first game between these two teams was 235 and rightfully so as both are top-15 scoring teams and top-10 pace teams. With a total in that same range - 233 to 235 - this has Under written all over it.

The issue is that the total is likely to be much less because of Philadelphia’s ability to defend. The total might dip below 230, which can still work. Of Philly’s last ten games, only two have had a total over 234.

NBA Free Pick:  UNDER down to 228

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