It’s finally here. The highly anticipated matchup between Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes. The Bucs and the Chiefs in Super Bowl LV.

With the Chiefs as the favorite at most online sportsbooks at -3, bettors looking for value on the total can find it if they do their homework. This free pick will do that homework for you.

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Game: Kansas City Chiefs (14-2, 7-10-1 ATS) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (14-5, 11-8 ATS)

When: 6:30 PM ET, Sunday, February 7, 2021

Where: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida

Current Line: KC -3   Total: 56

TV Coverage: CBS

No Trouble Scoring

Both Kansas City and Tampa Bay have very potent offenses. Both teams are very capable of scoring a lot of points. The Bucs, for example, have scored 30 or more in each of their last six games.

Tampa Bay averaged 30.8 points per game during the regular season, which was good for third in the NFL (behind Green Bay and Buffalo).

The Chiefs finished sixth overall averaging 29.6 points per game. They scored 30 or more in nine of their 16 regular season games and put up 38 in the AFC championship victory over Buffalo.

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Fountain of Youth

Brady enjoyed one of his most prolific seasons with 4,633 passing yards and 40 touchdowns. Mahomes threw for more yards - 4,740 - but fewer touchdowns - 38. Suffice to say, both are extremely talented and dangerous to opposing defenses.

Brady’s three touchdowns against Green Bay in the NFC championship game made it ten games in a row in which the Bucs quarterback has thrown for two or more scores. Mahomes has thrown for two or more touchdowns in all but three games this season (regular and postseason).

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Both teams tend toward the Over as evidenced by each team’s last six games. The Over is 4-2 in the last six Buc’s games and the last six Chiefs’ games. 

The Super Bowl total opened at 57.5 and because of heavy action on the Under has fallen to 56. That number in itself is a key.

Since 2015 when the NFL moved the PAT attempt to the 15-yard line, only 1.2 percent of games have ended with a total of 56 points. The move of the PAT, of course, has affected scoring.

We just missed our pick on the total our last time out. Go check it out at Seahawks @ 49ers free pick.

Super Bowl LV FREE PICK

The reason why 56 is important is that since 2015 and the new PAT rule, 3.22 percent of NFL games have ended with a total of 55. With all that early money coming in, don’t be surprised if you can find the total at 55 before game time. 

If the total doesn’t fall, taking the Over on anything below 57 will work as only 1.71 percent of games have ended on 57 in the last five seasons. In addition to all your homework, make sure you shop for the best line on the total. If you can find it under 56, take it for sure. 

Both teams average around 30 points per game and if they hit their average these key numbers won’t even matter. 

Super Bowl LV FREE PICK:  OVER 56

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